Saturday Morning Duban July 2025 tips

The 2025 Hollywoodbets Durban July (5 July at Greyville) features a high-quality field of 18 after a late scratching, and experts agree it’s shaping up as a clash between a rising star and the reigning champion.

• Frontrunners and Favorites
• Dark Horses to Watch
• Value Outsiders and Long-Shot Picks
• Track Conditions and Final Insights

It's Saturday morning on the 5th July 2025 and here are our updated tips guide focusing on the key frontrunners, underdog contenders, and value long-shots, along with the latest form insights and factors like jockeys and conditions.

Eight On Eighteen (14/10) – The clear favourite after a stellar season. This three-year-old colt has notched major wins in the Cape Town Met, SplashOut Cape Derby, and Daily News 2000. Trained by Justin Snaith and ridden by top jockey Richard Fourie, he carries 57 kg – a testing weight for his age – yet is widely considered “the horse to beat”. Importantly, the only horse to defeat him this year isn’t in the race, which puts Eight On Eighteen in an even stronger position to extend his winning streak.

Oriental Charm (11/2) – Last year’s Durban July winner and defending champion. Despite shouldering the top weight of 60 kg, this James Crawford-trained colt has shown he’s peaking at the right time with back-to-back runner-up finishes in the Cape Town Met and the Gold Challenge. Drawn in pole position (barrier 1), Oriental Charm likes to race handy and has proven stamina over 2200 m. Jockey J. P. van der Merwe reunites with him, and analysts foresee a “thrilling head-to-head” showdown between the seasoned champion and the young favorite.

Immediate Edge (7/1) – A lightly weighted three-year-old gelding regarded as a serious third contender. Trained by the legendary Mike de Kock, he comes off four consecutive wins at Turffontein and carries just 53 kg in this handicap. The question is whether he can replicate that Highveld form at sea level in Durban, but his impressive and consistent performances mark him as a strong challenger. With jockey Callan Murray aboard and momentum behind him, Immediate Edge could test the top two and is viewed as a potential upsetter if he handles the Greyville track.

The Real Prince (14/1) – Dubbed the dark horse of this year’s race. This Danie Kannemeyer-trained colt has shown flashes of top-class ability, notably winning the Jet Master Stakes at Kenilworth, although he’s unproven beyond a mile. Carrying 56.5 kg, he has the pedigree and determination to “surprise the favourites on race day” if he stays the 2200 m trip. Don’t overlook jockey Craig Zackey’s guidance – a late charge from The Real Prince could shake up the finish.

Gladatorian (16/1) – A tough, consistent five-year-old gelding with hidden potential. Trained by Stuart Ferrie, he has had “flashes of brilliance” and even finished close up in the Gold Challenge, a key July prep race. He is lugging 60 kg and starts from a wide draw, but if Gladatorian can produce his best and see out the distance, he “could be a surprise contender” in the closing stages.

Selukwe (16/1) – A rapidly improving horse that some savvy punters tout as a genuine dark horse. Selukwe relishes a true stamina test – he proved it with a victory in the WSB 1900, showing a sharp turn of foot against several of these rivals. Trainer Andre Nel has him peaking at the right time; if the race pace is strong, Selukwe is capable of securing a big placing with his late run (each-way value).

Royal Victory (20/1) – Last year’s third-place finisher who could outrun his odds. This Nathan Kotzen-trained horse saves his best for Grade 1 events, as shown by an “unlucky runner-up” finish in the Premier’s Champions Challenge in March. He carries 59 kg (2 kg more than in 2024) and has a tough draw (gate 17), but Royal Victory’s class is undeniable. Under jockey Muzi Yeni, a local favorite, he “could surprise” with a bold showing despite those challenges.

Madison Valley (25/1) – A sleeper pick who enters in excellent form. He was a gallant fourth in the Grade 1 Summer Cup and comes off a win in the Cup Trial at Greyville. With 54 kg and ace jockey Gavin Lerena in the saddle, this Frank Robinson-trained gelding has the tactical speed to secure a good position from draw 2. Madison Valley is largely flying under the radar, but it would be “no surprise to see this one go well at big odds” given his recent improvement.

On My Honour (33/1) – A true long-shot with intriguing upside. Glen Kotzen’s three-year-old earned his spot with a strong showing in the Cup Trial and reportedly impressed observers in pre-race gallops. He carries only 53 kg and has champion jockey S’manga Khumalo aboard – a significant asset. Tipped as an “outsider to watch” by some analysts, On My Honour’s deep-closing style and stamina could be a game-changer if the early pace is frenetic. At 33/1, he offers a substantial payoff for those willing to take a chance.

Confederate (25/1) – An underrated three-year-old with a classic pedigree. Trained by Fabian Habib and ridden by top jockey Warren Kennedy, Confederate won the prestigious SA Classic (1800 m) earlier this year. He’s untested over 2200 m, but comes into the July with just 53.5 kg. If he stays the extra distance (and any late betting support would be telling), this colt “could surprise” the field. For punters seeking value, Confederate’s proven class in top company makes him a compelling each-way prospect.

Race-day conditions: The Greyville track is expected to be in good shape, with fine weather forecast (around 13–22 °C and no significant rain). A dry, fast surface typically rewards horses with tactical speed and a strong finishing kick. This could benefit front-runners like Oriental Charm who can control the pace, as well as closers such as Selukwe who excel when there’s an honest early tempo.

Handicap factors: The Durban July is a handicap, meaning weight assignments are crucial. Light-weighted contenders like Immediate Edge (53 kg) have a notable advantage over top-weights carrying 60 kg, and this often opens the door for upsets. Jockey experience will also play a role – veterans like Richard Fourie, Gavin Lerena, and Muzi Yeni know how to time their runs on Greyville’s tight-turning track, which can make all the difference in a close finish.

Expert betting tips: Many tipsters are backing Eight On Eighteen as the safest win bet given his dominant form. For exotic wagers, consider coupling the favorite with Oriental Charm in an Exacta (first and second), or include a longer shot like On My Honour in Trifecta combinations for a chance at a hefty payout. Ultimately, in a race renowned for its unpredictability, a balanced strategy – mixing one of the frontrunners with a few value outsiders – may yield the best returns.