2025 Durban July Tips - Early analysis and a 40/1 value bet

On Monday, 29 of South Africa's top horses stood their ground after the second stage of declarations for the Durban July. The betting continues to be dominated by one horse, but there is plenty of value to be found behind the market leader.

Here's our early analysis of the 2025 Durban July, plus an early value bet at 41.0.

Eight On Eighteen is currently 2.8 to win this year's Durban July and fans of the market leader should probably get on now, as he could go off close to even-money come the first Saturday in July.

Justin Snaith's colt looked a little one-paced when placing twice behind One Stripe over a mile in the winter. Stepping up to ten furlongs, however, has unlocked massive improvement in this son of Lancaster Bomber. Eight On Eighteen took down many of the rivals he'll face in the July when winning the Cape Town Met, and was last seen trouncing his fellow three-year-olds in the valuable Daily News 2000.

Given his record over a mile-and-a-quarter, Eight On Eighteen should have no trouble seeing out the Durban July distance. Justin Snaith's star will have to carry 57kg - the maximum a three-year-old can be allotted - but should really be shouldering a top-weight of 60kg, as he's the highest-rated runner in the race.

Oriental Charm was one of my three selections in last year's Durban July, and went on to score a narrow victory. James Crawford's star will be one of three runners carrying top-weight in this year's renewal, along with See It Again and Gladatorian - if both are confirmed in the final field.

Oriental Charm was giving Eight On Eighteen five-and-a-half kilos when only beaten half-a-length in the Cape Town Met. The gap between the two will only be three kilos in the Durban July, but will that two-and-a-half kilo swing be enough to reverse that Kenilworth form? I'm not sure.

Immediate Edge, meanwhile, will be getting four kilos from Eight On Eighteen if they meet at Greyville. Mike & Mat de Kock's three-year-old romped to victory in the Jubilee Stakes, guaranteeing himself a spot in the final HDJ field. Yet, Immediate Edge remains the lowest-rated runner in this year's contest and didn't see out 12-furlongs when sixth in the Tab SA Derby.

See It Again has now only won one of his last 12 starts and has tasted defeat in the Durban July twice. SA Derby winner, Legend Of Arthur was awful on his most recent start, and Gladatorian is carrying a lot of weight for a horse who hasn't achieved all that much.

The Dolphins Cup Trial has produced the last two Durban July winners. Madison Valley struck at 33/1 in this year's renewal, where very few horses managed to get involved from off the pace.

One who did was ON MY HONOUR (41.0), who gave the leaders a nine-length advantage going into the bend. Glen Kotzen's gelding had to weave through traffic to find a path into contention, and a flying finish saw him place third, just a quarter-length behind Madison Valley.

On My Honour has finished behind Eight On Eighteen three times already this season. Chad Little's mount got outpaced in the Punters Cup and the Cape Guineas back in the winter. On their most recent clash in the WSB Guineas, On My Honour got a little closer to the Durban July favourite, but was still beaten two-and-a-half lengths.

All three of those clashes came in level-weighted contests. In the Durban July, On My Honour will carry the same weight as Immediate Edge, despite being rated eight pounds better than the current third-favourite. The three top-weights will be giving Kotzen's gelding seven kilos at Greyville, and there's only nine points between them in the ratings.

Little's mount is by a top sire in Gimmiethegreenlight and out of a High Chaparral dam, meaning his future must surely lie over middle distances. On My Honour's run in the Dolphin's Cup will offer Kotzen plenty of encouragement going into the Durban July and this progressive three-year-old comes out well at the weights.